MonkeyBrains by thinkorswim

08/19/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 20:56:00 GMT

PPI= sell off! That was all we needed to see today as the PPI started the market out in a bad way and things did not improve much from that point. It was a broad based sell off, but there is some hope as the Vix did not move up much.

thinkorswim, Inc. and its registered employee, Joe Kinahan, do not solicit or recommend any form of trading in the individual stocks (or their derivatives) mentioned above. Please do careful, independent research before investing any money as well as weigh the possible consequences on your particular financial situation before doing so. The risk of loss may be substantial.

Month 26 of experiment begins

Tom Preston — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 21:48:00 GMT

Month 26 of the SPX iron condor vs long SPY experiments begins with a selloff in the market. With the opening price of the day after expiration of the SPX at 1290, we look for the iron condor whose short strikes are equidistant from the index, and that generates a credit of 1.00. The Sep 1195/1200/1380/1385 fit the bill. The experiment dictates that each trade risk no more than 20% of the account value. With the experimental SPX account at $8,400, 20% of that is $1,680. With each iron condor having $400 max risk if the index settles either below 1195 or above 1385 at Sep expiration, we�ll sell four of them for a total risk of $1600, and charge the account $33.95 for commissions. We�ll hold the position until expiration.

The other side of the experiment will simply hold the long 79 shares of SPY. September pays a dividend on that ETF, so that will provide a little extra performance this month.

Net Liq SPX iron condors $8,404

Net Liq SPY shares $10,463

This discussion is for educational purposes only and is not intended as a trade recommendation.

Tom Preston
tpreston@thinkorswim.com
thinkorswim, Inc.
Member FINRA/SIPC/NFA

thinkorswim, Inc. and its registered employee, Tom Preston, do not solicit or recommend any form of trading in the individual stocks (or their derivatives) mentioned above. Please do careful, independent research before investing any money as well as weigh the possible consequences on your particular financial situation before doing so. The risk of loss may be substantial.

Month 25 results in

Tom Preston — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 19:08:00 GMT

With the S&P 500 settling at 1294.49 today, up about 2.5% since July expiration, it landed comfortably in between the short strikes of the experimental SPX Aug 1175/1180/1350/1355 iron condor. We sold it for 1.00 credit, and now it is worthless, capturing the full credit as profit. The account also took in $10.50 of interest for the month. But the experimental iron condor account value of $8,404 is still far below its $10,000 starting value. The losses on the iron condor trades over the past two years are $828, and the commissions charged are $902. What seems to be happening is that the iron condor win/loss ratio is about what we would predict, and it is hard for the strategy to generate long-term profits. But the killer is commissions. Also, we�re factoring in about .20 of slippage for each SPX iron condor. That would be about $80 per trade, which over time could turn the strategy from a winner to a loser. Either way, the transaction costs are a real drag on the iron condors.

The experimental buy and hold SPY share account is holding steady at $10,682. $428 of the $682 in profits come from dividends over the past two years, revealing that dividends are a big part of its long-term performance.

We�ll find the next experimental SPX iron condor on Monday morning.

This discussion is for educational purposes only and is not intended as a trade recommendation.

Tom Preston
tpreston@thinkorswim.com
thinkorswim, Inc.
Member FINRA/SIPC/NFA

thinkorswim, Inc. and its registered employee, Tom Preston, do not solicit or recommend any form of trading in the individual stocks (or their derivatives) mentioned above. Please do careful, independent research before investing any money as well as weigh the possible consequences on your particular financial situation before doing so. The risk of loss may be substantial.

08/14/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 14:30:00 GMT

The Dow is looking strong heading in to expiration as are most major indexes but as we know expiration can hold surprises. We get some excitement in the market wrap-up tonight as Carl Icahn shakes things up.

Joe Kinahan Back on Bloomberg!

Erin Lawley — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 22:42:00 GMT

It's Bloomberg's lucky day...Joe Kinahan will be making not one, but two appearances Thursday morning! Don't miss either of them- tune in at 8:25am, and then again at 8:55am.

08/12/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 15:36:00 GMT

The market takes it on the chin. The financials have a tough time as JPM announces problems with mortgages. We see volatility up in Financials and the market overall. A surprise up move for GM.

Out with the Old, In with the New!

Erin Lawley — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 19:54:00 GMT

Joe Kinahan will be back on CNBC this Wednesday, August 13, at 7:00am Central Time. You don't want to miss this one!

08/09/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 14:28:00 GMT

Wow what a rally on Friday as the market was up over 300 points on the day with 28 advancers and only 2 decliners. HD our big percentage leader in the clubhouse. We throw in a little Elvis to get us started as JJ is in Vegas for the Investors conference.

08/08/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 19:50:00 GMT

That whacking sound you heard was the Dow getting beaten up-down more then 224 points in Thursday's action. The financial stocks had problems again. The question becomes can they bounce back with FNM or does Fannie take us down further?

08/06/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 14:32:00 GMT

CSCO leads the way with some nice earnings and the Dow posts a respectable gain again. ELN has some rough times as CSCO says they may no longer be interested, but a solid day for the markets.

08/05/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 14:18:00 GMT

What an impressive rally!!! The Fed meeting was today but it is secondary to all the other things that surrounded this rally 29 advancers and only 1 decliner sorry CVX. This is an action packed wrap up as there is a lot to talk about.

Corrected TV times for Joe Kinahan

Sarah Martel — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 21:22:00 GMT

Correction. Joe Kinahan's still hitting the airwaves, but thankfully, he's no longer scheduled for the 6:00am slot. Instead, see him twice on Friday on Bloomberg, at 8:25 and 8:55am, and then on Monday morning at 7:00am on CNBC.

07/31/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 20:24:00 GMT

This has been an easy week down 200, up 200, up 186 who didn't see this coming? The market has another very impressive rally and we approach key resistance numbers. Many earnings this week and of course unemployment on Friday.

Joe Kinahan's on TV Again!

Sarah Martel — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 17:46:00 GMT

Joe Kinahan�s all over the airwaves these days. See him this afternoon at 2:45pm on Bloomberg. Then catch him again on Friday morning at 6:00am on CNBC and then twice on Bloomberg, at 8:25 and 8:55am.

07/29/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 15:44:00 GMT

Another manic Monday, yes it was, the Dow down over 236 points as the financial once again lead us lower. We take a look at opportunity in Merril and preview what the important numbers are for the rest of the week.

07/25/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 15:02:00 GMT

A good close to the week as the Dow is up slightly and we have 17 advancers and 12 decliners. We see the Vix down slightly and a big fat goose egg for the day on the emini futures.

07/24/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 16:24:00 GMT

Butt whopping, there is no better way to describe what happened to the market today with the Dow down over 280 and the s&P down over 30 it was a rough day. We did see bright spots however in AMZN and QCOM because of earnings. Oh what will Friday bring?

07/23/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 14:46:00 GMT

AMZN are you too good to be true? we will find out tomorrow as they had great earnings after the close. But any time you can work in a Franki Valli reference it is a good day. The Dow was strong with 21 advancers and only 9 decliners and SPU creeping to 1300.

07/22/08 - thinkorswim Market Wrapup

Joe Kinahan — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:12:00 GMT

What an impressive rally, even AAPL which looked to be in the depths of disparity last night ends up down only $4.27 The big loser on the day however was oil as it sank significantly sparking the market as the Dow was up over 135 and the other indexes followed. JJ gives you a peek at today and a look forward.